In reading a recent report from SNL Real Estate, it is striking what is happening in residential housing. Consumer confidence is higher, mortgage interest rates remain historically low, jobs are starting to recover and in general, the economy is better. But housing is still soft - and reflects recessionary levels nationally.
Omaha and the Midwest have remained strong. The Midwest region saw new home sales rise to 62,000 units, representing month-over-month and year-over-year increases of 19.2% and 21.6%, respectively. Good news for the Midwest.
(From the SNL report) Data released in February 2015 for the U.S. housing market show mostly declines in monthly results, but sustained annual increases. New- and existing-home sales and housing starts fell month over month, while home prices in the 10- and 20-city composites saw a slight uptick and foreclosure rates increased from the prior month.
Home prices
In the most recent release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index published Feb. 24, the 10-city and 20-city composites showed slight gains in annual home-price growth in December 2014, with year-over-year gains of 4.3% and 4.5%, respectively. Both indexes increased from November annual growth rates of 4.2% for the 10-city composite and 4.3% for the 20-city composite.
Twelve cities saw annual price growth rise from November, with San Francisco and Miami leading the group with the largest increases, up 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively. Cleveland, Denver and Seattle were also among the 12 cities that saw prices rise faster in the year to December than a month earlier. Vegas led among cities with declining annual returns, with 6.9% price growth, down from 7.7% annually.
“The housing recovery is faltering,” David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in the February release. “While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession.”
All 20 metropolitan areas posted a positive change in month-over-month seasonally adjusted home prices. Denver, Detroit, San Francisco and Seattle reported the largest positive growth rates in seasonally adjusted home prices between November and December, with Denver gaining 1.4% and the other three gaining 1.2%.
“The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence,” Blitzer said. He went on to note that there are clear regional patterns, stating that the western half of the nation, as well as Miami and Atlanta, enjoyed at least 5% year-over-year increases. “The regional patterns and the weakness in new construction and new sales may reflect decreasing mobility — fewer people moving to different parts of the country or seeking jobs in different regions,” stated Blitzer.